Arakan Strife Could Spread Across Burma: ICG

A young boy looks through burnt remains of a house in Pauktaw Township, Arakan State. (Photo: JPaing / The Irrawaddy)
Recent sectarian violence in Arakan (Rakhine) State threatens
national stability and could spread into wider religious conflict unless
tackled through decisive moral leadership, claims the International
Crisis Group (ICG) in a new report.
Myanmar: Storm Clouds on the Horizon indicates there is a
real risk that the localized Arakan State conflict could take on a more
general Buddhists-versus-Muslims dimension and spread to other parts of
the multi-religious and multi-ethnic country.
“Social tensions are rising as more freedom allows local conflicts to
resurface,” says Paul Quinn-Judge, ICG’s acting Asia program director.
“Moral leadership is required now to calm tensions and new compromises
will be needed if divisive confrontation is to be avoided.”
The Brussels-based group tracks the broad changes that have continued
to move Burma away from authoritarianism despite the recent and serious
backward step of communal violence in the country’s west.
“The Myanmar government and legislature have demonstrated that they
possess the vision and leadership to shift the country decisively away
from its authoritarian past,” says Jim Della-Giacoma, ICG’s Southeast
Asia project director.
“But they will inevitably face major challenges, including containing
and resolving the intercommunal conflict that has engulfed Rakhine
State and reaching a ceasefire in Kachin State.”
In May 2012, the rape and murder of a Buddhist woman allegedly by
three Muslim men ignited long-simmering tensions between the Buddhist
Arakanese and Muslim Rohingya communities. Since June, rioting has led
to more than 100 people killed, thousands of homes burnt down and tens
of thousands made homeless, according to official figures.
While the local authorities have been seen to take the Arakanese side
in the conflict, international aid agencies including the United
Nations and Doctors Without Borders have faced threats and intimidation
from the Buddhist majority for supposedly siding with the Muslims.
The ICG sees the recent unrest as taking place in the context of
President Thein Sein introducing more democratic policies and
consolidating power among reformers. Political prisoners have been
released, protests permitted, censorship reduced and cabinet reshuffled
to remove or sideline ministers who were seen as too conservative or
ineffective.
The ICG report, released on Monday, also points at the difficulty in
reaching a ceasefire in Kachin State as underlining the complexity of
forging a sustainable peace with ethnic armed groups. There are also
rising grassroots tensions over land grabs, environmental and social
concerns regarding foreign-backed infrastructure and mining projects as
well as widespread human rights violations committed by government
troops.
A report by the Free Burma Rangers humanitarian group released on
Oct. 23 provides independent verification of the continuing abuses that
threaten national conciliation in Kachin State.
“On July 8, soldiers from Light Infantry Battalion 321, Infantry
Battalion (IB) 28 and IB 37 raped a 58-year-old woman [name withheld for
victim’s protection] from Hpa Re Village in the Pang Wa area. She is
married with one child. Burma Army soldiers also raped a 39-year-old who
is a widowed mother of 12,” reported the group.
“Kachin villagers have also been subject to unlawful capture and
torture. On June 1, [Border Guard Force] Battalion 1001 arrived at Tang
Gaw Village and captured 34-year-old Tang Gaw Ting Sau, a Kachin pastor,
with two sons and a wife.
“His wife recounted how Burma Army soldiers covered his eyes and beat
him after they captured him. He was imprisoned for his alleged
association with the [Kachin Independence Army]. As of the latest
report, Burma Army soldiers are still holding him captive.”
David Mathieson, senior researcher on Burma for Human Rights Watch,
told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that the broader ceasefire pattern was
more worrying for the overall prospects of nationwide peace than the
current situation in western Burma.
“Ongoing conflict in Kachin and the possibility that the ceasefires
in Burma could breakdown probably represents more of a threat to the
reform process than anything else,” he said. “The peace process in the
east, while looking good from the outside, is going through a very
fragile time and it needs to have a lot more effort given to cementing
those ceasefires and ending the conflict in Kachin State.”
Mathieson explained that the lack of progress with ethnic groups that
have an established military and political apparatus was more troubling
than the “murky elements” on all sides of the communal conflict in
Arakan State, but that separating the two communities would only lead to
future strife.
“I think segregation is the recipe for further intercommunal violence
in the future,” he added. “Slow integration and legal acceptance for
minorities with education and religious tolerance should be the way
forward. Segregation is a short-term security solution rather than a
long-term peace-building solution.”
The ICG report says a major test for the government’s security forces
will be maintaining law and order without rekindling memories of the
recent authoritarian past. Furthermore, competition between Thein Sein’s
reformist administration and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s
National League for Democracy leading up to the 2015 general election
could lead to more confrontational social movements unless handled
carefully.